How do we find the right dose in immune-oncology trials?
Is the traditional “maximum tolerated dose” approach still enough, or should we also focus on efficacy?
In this episode of The Effective Statistician, I talk with Teppo Huttunen, a seasoned statistician and Chief Executive Officer of EstiMates Oy. We uncover the shortcomings of the conventional three-plus-three design and explain how the Bayesian Optimal Interval (BOIN) design gives us more flexibility and better insights. Teppo shares practical tips on dose optimization and highlights the critical role statisticians play in shaping smarter, evidence-based decisions for phase two trials.
If you want to learn how we can balance safety, efficacy, and practical challenges in oncology studies, this episode is for you!
Key points:
- Dose Selection Challenge
- Limitations of 3+3 Design
- BOIN Design
- Backfilling
- Efficacy vs. Safety
- Statisticians’ Role
- Practical Challenges
- FDA Guidance
- Cross-Functional Approach
- Industry Trends
- Cost & Timeline Estimation
Understanding dose selection in immune-oncology is crucial for developing safer and more effective treatments, and statisticians play a central role in driving these decisions.
In this episode, Teppo shares practical insights into overcoming the limitations of traditional methods and adopting more flexible approaches like the BOIN design.
If you want to stay ahead in oncology research and learn how to balance safety, efficacy, and practical challenges in dose optimization, this episode is a must-listen!
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Teppo Huttunen
Chief Executive Officer at EstiMates Oy
Statistician with 20 years of experience from clinical trial statistics and leadership of biometric functions, establishing an expert service company with current head count of 10 professionals in 2021. Long-time EFSPI council member representing Finland.
Transcript
Early Development and The Dose Selection in the Immune-oncology
Alexander: [00:00:00] Welcome to another episode of The Effective Statistician. Today I’m super happy to have Teppo with me. Welcome to the show. Maybe you can introduce yourself shortly to the audience.
Teppo: Thank you, Alexander. Hello. Hello, everyone. So I’m Teppo Hutturen. I’m a statistician and I come from Finland in Turku so southwest Finland or 50 kilometers from Helsinki.
I did my statistics studies in the Turku University graduated 2004. And from then onwards, I’ve been working with with the truck development and a long time in a Finnish CRO. And then three and a half years ago me and a couple other colleagues we started our.
On company estimates, which we have been now running and we have been now developing the company and we have a group of 10 experts there. We also have data managers. We [00:01:00] have programmers. We have also a small data science unit. But But me and then many people, we have a background in, in statistics and in, in the biostatistics.
So that was where my career started when we had a, in Turku university, there was a master’s program focusing on the drug development statistics.
Alexander: Yeah. So you’re basically a boutique CRO. What are your typical clients that you look for?
Teppo: We are Collaborating a lot with the biotechs the biotechs don’t usually have their own statisticians, then we can operate as their internal statisticians and be the statistical experts there.
Then we can conduct like also the operative part, but then many occasions we are doing there might be a CRO involved and we are doing like the statistical oversight. That is typical. We also serve some clients in [00:02:00] the functional food. So there we are more doing the operative role.
Why? In, in the food studies, but then also with different kinds of pharma companies, there might be early phase studies like DK studies and these kind of studies from different sectors.
Alexander: Okay, cool. Very good. So today we want to talk specifically about oncology and especially immune oncology.
And one of the first challenges that you We’ll get into when you develop these tracks is of course, that those selection and I’m not an oncology expert, but one of the things that I know about is that lots of these oncology early phase studies where it’s about those selections have says three plus three design.
You basically start with three patients. You look Jose turn out to be, and then [00:03:00] you escalate further until you reach some kind of maximum tolerable dose. And that’s basically your dose finding. Now, it is known that this design has many different disadvantages. What are a couple of the disadvantages of these studies?
Teppo: Yeah like you mentioned it’s really commonly and historically used methods and basically it is a very effective method when there is a cytotoxic agent. In question. Yeah. And then it’s purely based on the hypothesis that what is the most tolerated amount of the truck is also the most effective.
And then Only with three patients or then if it’s the three plus three, six patients you can get this information with quite high probability that, okay, you [00:04:00] will eventually run into this maximum. tolerated dose. And then you have the dose for your phase two study. But then, now quite a long time already, we are being, we have been working with the immuno oncology molecules.
And there it is not necessarily that, that the. The maximum tolerated dose is the most effective dose. Okay. And I think this basic question is like what the companies and the people working with the immuno oncology and in the oncology drug development should understand.
And then when you understand this, like a paradigm or this issue so And then you can start to think that, okay, then how do we set the question and questions that we would get the better better estimation for what could be the the optimal biologic [00:05:00] dose.
Alexander: Yeah. So that’s really a paradigm shift from looking into just the maximum tolerable dose to the most appropriate dose in independent or not independent, of course, as a kind of a upper limit, but it doesn’t need to be this kind of upper limit.
Teppo: You need to, basically, I think it’s good if you can find it, the limit, because that answers the question then that, okay, what? are the safe doses. Yeah. But then the next question should be that, okay, what are the most probably efficacious doses? Yeah. Yeah. And then you should widen the thinking and yeah, and I think there then what is, and I think that, Authorities are, of course, aware of this and they have been FDA has raised different guidances and there is [00:06:00] nowadays also a kind of fit for purpose stamp on this BOIN method.
Alexander: What does BOIN stand for?
Teppo: That’s the Bayesian Optimal Interval Design.
Alexander: Okay.
Teppo: Yeah but basically Boeing is it’s like a more general it has the same kind of utilities that the three plus three, basically three plus three is a special case of included in the Boeing.
Alexander: Okay.
Teppo: So actually the bone is also answering to the same questions that, okay, what is the maximum tolerated dose?
So we are still in, in the same framework but there is a lot more flexibility with the bone.
Alexander: How do you get, how do we get to this more flexibility? What are the other parameters in the introduce?
Teppo: In the boy, and there, there is a lot of modeling behind, but basically there is you set [00:07:00] up a target toxicity level.
It’s also in the three plus three, you are having the target toxicity level basically of 30%. In the Boin, you can set up the target toxicity level also to 25 or 20. In case you want to like not allow more toxic Agents and then you have a decision rules for the dose escalation and dose de escalation, which are not tied to the number of patients.
So you can have three patients as a cohort size and then your decision rules are, patients. Pretty equal to the three plus three or in some cases, even equal, but you can also have to call her choice of four or five. And then it allows that if there are cases where the. Patients discontinue early and they are not [00:08:00] like a DLD, the dose limiting toxicity, evaluable.
Then you can still make decisions about whether you need to stay on the same dose level or you need to de escalate or can you escalate to the next level.
Alexander: So basically you can have more flexibility first to understand what is your maximum tolerated or your maximum toxicity set that you want to get below.
Teppo: You are more flexibly moving. We along with the doses . And then the operational characteristics are built so that you have more patients allocated to the to the doses around. Or below the maximum tolerate those because the three plus three is basically running that you run to the highest level and then you stop.
But with the Boeing, you can based on the observations, you are moving more, more around the the MDD and you get more [00:09:00] information then also about other parameters than only the tolerability.
Alexander: What are these other parameters that you can measure?
Teppo: It’s the responses. It can be also the like PK and PD parameters.
Okay. And also the utter tolerability. Because these those escalation methods are based on the dichotomic that if there is a DLT or not, but then of course you can have like more, more milder adverse events.
Alexander: Yeah. Yeah. And so you can also take an, and here’s the responses.
So that’s basically the efficacy also comes into play. And you can basically also model that, so it takes that into account. So that you also get information about the efficacy, not just the tolerability.
Teppo: Yeah. There are also these kinds of models that you You can use the same kind [00:10:00] of framework and accounting for the efficacy responses.
And these are called, these call so called toxicity and efficacy models. But there I think there I haven’t seen those that much in the practice because already running the model Using the DLT events, it’s, it starts to be like the prac somewhat of a practical challenge.
And then if you need to follow up also the efficacy responses and include those in the decisions it starts to get complicated.
Alexander: Is that because the, you observe the tolerability faster than the response?
Teppo: That’s partly I think one, one, one reason, but then of course it’s also that do you only want to use the dichotomic response information because then despite of that, you should also consider the PK and [00:11:00] PD parameters.
And then of course, regarding the efficacy the number of patients is quite limited. If you have one response out of three, and then the other dose, you have zero response out of three, it doesn’t necessarily show that okay the one with the single response is really more really better.
Alexander: Yeah, so it only gives you some preliminary information. I said preliminary information could be enough to designs a phase two study in a way.
Teppo: And I think that’s also like important that the companies. would understand that, okay, the answer we, answers we get from the tolerability, which might be already quite like convincing that, okay, it’s not safe anymore.
But then the answers at that time point for the efficacy are still very preliminary. And I think that’s the basis why, for example, the [00:12:00] FDA is trying to give more guidance to this dose optimization. And that you should take to the phase two several doses, at least two doses.
Alexander: Yeah. Yeah. But I think then if you get basically through that model based assumptions, you can then have better informed decision for what is a good dose selection for phase two.
Teppo: Yeah. Yeah. So it’s really about the gathering As much information as possible. And then, of course, there are like budget issues and also in the early phase, you might have like several cancer types.
Because that’s also like very common in the early phase studies, especially in the oncology that, okay, when you are dealing with the tolerability, you can have many different cancer types. Okay. Because you, you think that for the tolerability, it doesn’t [00:13:00] matter, but then for the efficacy, it might matter.
Alexander: Okay. Yeah. So that’s
Teppo: also another. Possibly confusing factor.
Alexander: Okay. Yeah. Okay. That is, of course, I would say pretty important because your phase two study would only be in one indication, not in many. Yeah,
Teppo: usually at least you start with one indication. Then, of course, if you have promising results, you might go into several indications.
But that’s my experience that usually you focus then on, on one or two indications in the phase two.
Alexander: Yep. That’s it
Teppo: might be also a budget issue. I think a couple of years back, there was a lot of talk about these basket trials, but now I think I see it’s better to. Go a little bit stepwise and focus first on the one or two indication.
Alexander: Yeah, I think it’s that’s definitely a time and budget issue. [00:14:00] Yeah. Yeah. If you have lots of budget, of course you can go more risk and develop more things in parallel, but if money is constrained. And especially in the past years, where the interest rates have been much higher there was much less money in the biotech area.
And so I think that definitely probably had a, had an impact on these kinds of decisions.
Teppo: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think there, there has been many of these kinds of drivers that, that in the immuno oncology that when it started to develop, then Then came the basket trials. Then also had this the possibility that you can And it still has the possibility that you can get early approvals with a single agent or a single arm trials.
Yeah. Yeah. And now it, it seems that, okay, they want that the companies focus more on the dose optimization. They want [00:15:00] also that, okay, you need to have at least some amount of evidence from the randomized comparisons and so on.
Alexander: Yeah. Which just from my kind of experience with single arm trials is I think a good decision to have more of that evidence for yeah.
Teppo: I think it’s really good and it’s, it shows that that as always, the authorities know quite well what of course, what they are doing, but what is happening on the field and then they get used to like the all of the information that they have seen.
Thanks so
Alexander: much. So in what is the kind of key takeaway that you want the listener to get away from this discussion? Thank you.
Teppo: I think one, one key is to understand the basic the paradigm and then if you deal with the immuno oncologic drug first of all the three plus three is like a [00:16:00] historical, but in some cases it could still be considered if you like only need to somehow show that, okay, these, those levels are safe.
But then you need to understand that you are not getting any more information regardless the Boeing is more flexible. It’s basically still giving the same kind of answer, but it’s more flexible in practice. And then in the Boeing, there is also flexibility that you can have more patients around.
The maximum tolerated dose. So you have more information. You can even have, there’s this word that is used backfilling. When you are running the dose escalation and you are proceeding and so you have been basically proven that the earlier doses are safe, then at the same time you can start to include patients [00:17:00] to the, these levels that you have passed using the backfilling.
So then instead of having three or six patients per dose group, you could have, for example, 10 patients per dose group at the same time. So you can go along with the dose escalation, and at the same time, you can collect a little bit more information still within the same framework. So you are following these patients, you’re backfilling, you’re still following.
If there’s a DLT, you can import, incorporate that. Information in the, this bottom point framework and then the framework is telling okay, what is the next dose? What is where you should allocate the next patient? Of course, there are also other methods like the CRM, the continuous reassess method.
So it’s, I think also an options but in some cases. But I, what I have noticed is that, okay then it starts to be tricky with the clinicians. and the other operative people in the [00:18:00] clinical operation. So I have found that the point that they can understand and then they like the flexibility.
Alexander: Yeah.
Teppo: And then also from the statistical side, if you incorporate this kind of backfilling options. And so you have like maybe then 10 patients per four dose group, you have quite a lot of information then. To inform that, okay, what would be the two doses you take forward to the phase two?
Alexander: Yep. Yep. That’s a great summary. And we’ll also put a couple of links into the show notes regarding this. And of course, also a link to Teppo’s company estimates. Which, by the way, I find a really nice name and he also has pretty nice logo for that . Yeah. And so yeah, my
Teppo: co colleague Mika designed the logo yeah it’s nice that you recognize this.
Alexander: Yeah, I had a, I had [00:19:00] something similar in my PhD thesis. And I liked that very much. Thanks so much. For that kind of. interesting discussion about the paradigm shift that we see within oncology and especially immuno oncology that, it’s not just about the maximum target tolerated dose, but also taking more efficacy data into account.
Teppo: Yeah, it’s the optimal biologic dose, but Then the question is that, okay how do you estimate that? And I think there, there is a lot for us that is distance that where we can really be a part of, or we need to be part of that. Of course, then include other professionals as well, like the BKBK PD specialists.
Alexander: Yeah. Yeah. This is cross functional. Thanks a lot.
Teppo: Thank you. This was very nice. Thanks, Alexander.
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